According to Countrymeters, Venezuela on April 10, 2015 has a population of just over 31.4 million inhabitants – most whom are citizens.

The legislative elections are due late in 2015. If the elections are set before the December holidays, then average abstention of voters of 35% will most llikely apply. Or, in other words, 65% of voters will turnout on election day.

Let’s assume the elections are set before the December holidays, so the 35% average abstention rate applies. But if elections are set during the holidays or close to the holidays, then an above average abstention rate — say something like 40% applies.

Reactionary voters more often have funds for travel within Venezuela and abroad during December holidays.

(1) Population ……………………………..  31.4 million

(2) Average Voter Abstention rate ….. .35%

(3) No. of Non-voters………………………10.9 million        [31.4  X 0.35= 10.9]

(4) Estimated Voter turnout………………20.5 million       [31.4 — 10.9 = 20.5]

Let’s assume that 99% of the signatories to the revolutionary petition are revolutionary voters and 1% reactionary voters.

(5) Signatories ………………………………..10 million

(6) Percent revolutionary………………….. 99%

(7) No. of revolutionary voters……………9.9 million

To get the current standing [as of April 10] of the revolutionary forces in the upcoming legislative elections in Venezuela, we divide the No. of revolutionary voters, Item (7) above, by the estimated voter turnout  of  20.5 million. Item No. 4.

9.9 / 20.5 million = 48%

The political results of the anti-imperialist petition implies that 48% of the electorate presently supports revolutionary forces in the upcoming elections if election day is set before the December holidays. If election day is set during or close to the December holidays, an above average abstention rate applies principally against reactionary forces, thereby lifting the revolutionary standing from 48% to 53%.

The revolutionary forces are either in a statistical tie or in the lead.