“I Think That If I Ran, I Could Win,” Bernie says during an interview with Real Clear Politics on April 1, 2015.

So Bernie says “If I ran, I could win.” Thus, the phrase – “I think that” – isn’t significant. So, we drop it.

Looking at just “If I ran, I could win,” we see that both clauses are contingencies.

“If I ran” means either I run or I don’t run.

Similarly, I could win means either I could win or I could lose.

So, we get: If one contingency, then another contingency follows.

In other words, If I run or don’t run, then, in either case, I win or lose.

We posit some elegant but bizarre possibility in which Bernie doesn’t run but still wins. It’s hard to understand or imagine this possibility. But it’s out there. Somewhere.

When Bernie ventures into sphere of prophecy, he doesn’t take any chances.

Bernie tries to slip an eery kind of necessity into the proposition, as elaborated.

The proposition — If I run or don’t run, then, in either case, I win or lose — correctly predicts a future event.

Well, what, if anything, can we concretely pick up from this proposition?

Will Bernie win? The proposition says Bernie will win or lose; so the answer to the question is definitely no, because win or lose is not the same thing as win.

Will Bernie lose? The proposition says Bernie will win or lose; so the answer to the question is definitely no, because win or lose is not the same thing as lose.

Now, we stand on solid ground.

The real question is: Will Bernie win or lose?

The answer is … of course.

Under these premises, Bernie has a 50% chance of winning or losing although the polls assert otherwise.